42 DAYS VS. 497: WHAT OUR 2026 EXITS SHOW

Our fastest exit this year took 42 days. Our slowest took 497. Same lender. Same money.

And here is the part most people get wrong: the slow one is not automatically the bad one.

FROM DEVON'S DESK

We have closed out 19 loans so far in 2026, so I pulled the exit data this week. The spread is wide, two to three months on one end, well over a year on the other.

The lazy read is fast good, slow bad. That is not the lesson.

The lesson is this: match your timeline to your projected return.

A longer, larger project can absolutely make sense. But understand what you are actually signing up for. A longer hold means more months of carry, more months of execution risk, and the one nobody prices in, market volatility risk. The market you exit into eighteen months from now is not the market you bought in. Prices, rates, buyer psychology, all of it can move while you are framing walls.

That added risk has to be paid for. With margin.

So here is the rule I want you to steal: if you are projecting $50K to $150K of profit, that project should not take over a year. Period. There is not enough cushion in that number to absorb twelve-plus months of carry and a market that shifts underneath you. If you are projecting several hundred thousand, a heavy reposition, a new build, a real value-add, then maybe you can justify the longer runway. The margin is the shock absorber. Small margin, short timeline. Big margin, and you have earned the right to take the longer hold.

Most blown deals I see did not pick a bad project. They picked a small-margin project and gave it a big-margin timeline.

MARKET PULSE

Fresh Phoenix metro numbers this week: median sale price around $458K, roughly flat year over year. About 56 days to sell. Inventory up 15 to 20% from last year. Sellers getting about 97% of ask.

Flat prices cut both ways. They protect you from a crash and they strip away the appreciation that used to bail out slow projects. In 2021, time in the market fixed your mistakes. In 2026, time in the market just bills you for them.

The action: the longer your projected timeline, the wider your margin cushion has to be at purchase. Underwrite the exit at 97% of a realistic comp, assume two months on market, and make the deal absorb every month of hold at the offer price, not at the finish line.

THE DEAL DESK

Recently funded:

Phoenix, 85014 — $500,000 — funded July 15Maricopa, 85138 — $165,000 — funded June 29Gilbert, 85296 — $600,000 — funded June 24Phoenix, 85032 — $445,000 — funded June 22

Recently exited:

Phoenix — $340,000 — in and out in 42 days. Total interest cost: roughly $4,760.Tolleson — $261,000 — 66 days.Surprise — $355,000 — 77 days.Scottsdale — $1,950,000 — 465 days. A bigger, heavier project on a long runway.Tucson — $370,000 — 418 days.

Two stats worth sitting with. The five loans that both opened and closed in 2026 averaged 86 days start to payoff. And the long holds on our books skew toward the bigger, heavier projects, which is exactly how it should be. A seven-figure project that holds 15 months and exits with a heavy margin did its job. A $300K flip that holds 14 months did not. It just paid for everyone else's summer.

Our money costs 12% and a point. On the 42-day exit above, that money cost less than $5,000 all-in and closed the day we said it would. On a long project, certainty matters even more. A lender who freezes a draw in month nine can kill a deal that fourteen clean months of interest never would. The rate is what you pay for money. Certainty is what you pay for sleep.

ONE THING TO STEAL

Before your next offer, run one number: projected profit divided by projected months of hold.

$120K over 14 months is about $8,500 a month of risk, on a project where carry alone can eat half of that. $400K over 16 months is $25,000 a month. One of those earns its timeline. Know your number before you wire your deposit. If the profit-per-month is thin, either shorten the plan or lower the offer until it is not.

"If the profit is small, the timeline better be short."

What is the projected profit-per-month on your current project? Hit reply with the number. I read every one.

Devon

weare42solutions.com · devon@weare42solutions.com · 602-501-1174

P.S. Short timeline or big margin, every project needs at least one, and the best ones have both. If you know an operator sitting on a 14-month plan with a $75K spread, forward them this email before they buy it.

Newsletter Edition #27