A RECORD WAVE OF BRIDGE MONEY IS HEADING FOR PHOENIX. READ BEFORE YOU BORROW ANY OF IT.

June was the biggest month in the history of private lending. Not my opinion, data.

Lightning Docs documented 7,606 loans in June, the busiest month they have ever recorded. And buried in the county-level data is the part that matters here: Maricopa County has posted top-10 national bridge volume three months in a row.

The money found Phoenix.

Here is what makes this moment interesting: that record wave of capital is arriving in a market where buyers, not sellers, hold the leverage. More money chasing slower exits. Those two facts together are this entire issue. Because when capital floods in and discipline gets scarce, discipline is what you are actually being paid for.

THE MAP IS NOT ONE MARKET

The Valley overall sits in buyer's territory, but the metro is not one market. It is many, and they are not close to the same. The established core, Scottsdale, Chandler, Tempe, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, is holding up best. Many of the fast-growing outer-ring suburbs, where most of the new inventory landed, are the softest. Where you buy has quietly become one of the biggest variables in whether your project sells in 30 days or 130.

The same deal on paper, same basis, same rehab, same ARV, carries very different risk depending on the submarket and how honestly you price the exit. The operators doing well right now underwrite a realistic sale price and a longer days on market, not last year's optimistic numbers.

IF YOU FLIP OR BUILD

Bridge volume nationally is up 26% year over year, and a wave of new capital is offering Phoenix operators cheaper rates than they have seen in three years. Some of you will get quoted 9% and change from a national lender this quarter.

Take the phone call. Then do this math before you sign.

On a $400K loan over a 6-month flip, the difference between 9.5% and 12% is about $5,000. One month of extra carrying cost because your draw took three weeks instead of 24 hours: $4,000 or more. One price cut because you closed too slowly and lost the first deal: $10,000 plus. One credit line freeze at the lender's fund, and their fund, not your deal, decides that, and your project dies at the closing table. We watched exactly that happen to operators in 2023 when institutional lines got pulled.

Cheap money is only cheap if it shows up, funds your draws on time, and does not change terms at closing. The rate is what you pay for money. Certainty is what you pay for sleep.

I lend my own capital at 12% and 1. No committee, no credit line that can get pulled, draws in about 24 hours, and the terms we agree to on day one are the terms at the table. In a market this competitive, the operator who closes in 7 days beats the operator who saved two points and closed in 30. Every time.

In the softer submarkets, we want to see a realistic ARV, an exit priced to actually move, and enough term and reserves to ride out a longer sale. That is not conservatism for its own sake. It is protecting your project and your capital in a market that is rewarding patience and punishing aggressive assumptions.

IF YOU ARE AN AGENT OR BROKER

Three straight months of top-10 bridge volume means funded investor-buyers are active in your market right now. Buyers who close in days, not 45-day financing contingencies. If you are not working the investor side of your book, this is the data that says start.

Your submarket knowledge is the differentiator. The agent who knows which zip sells in 30 days and which sits for 130 is worth more than ever. When your investor client's deal lives or dies on close speed, the lender you introduce them to reflects on you.

IF YOU ARE A CONTRACTOR, SUB, OR TITLE PRO

Every one of those loans is a rehab or build that needs crews and a closing that needs title. The pipeline of funded projects is as full as it has been in three years, and the projects funded by lenders who release draws in 24 hours are the ones that pay you on time too. Position for the wave now.

THE DEAL DESK

Our desk confirms the trend: $14.9M funded this year across 25 loans. Gilbert, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Surprise, Maricopa, and beyond. 19 loans paid off this year. Zero in default. Money going out, projects exiting clean, borrowers coming back.

Recently funded:

• Phoenix, 85014 — $500,000 — funded July 15

• Maricopa, 85138 — $165,000 — funded June 29

• Gilbert, 85296 — $600,000 — funded June 24

• Phoenix, 85032 — $445,000 — funded June 22

"The money found Phoenix. Discipline did not come with it."

ONE THING TO STEAL

When capital floods a market, discipline gets scarce, and discipline is what you are actually being paid for.

Hold your buy criteria flat while everyone else loosens theirs. Pull the actual days on market for your target zip, not the metro average, before you write the offer. And pick your capital partner on the three things that decide outcomes: speed, certainty, and whether the person who said yes is the person wiring the money.

What is the most expensive lending mistake you have seen someone make chasing a cheaper rate? Reply and tell me. I read every response.

Devon

weare42solutions.com · devon@weare42solutions.com · 602-501-1174

P.S. The wave is coming to Phoenix either way. Position in front of it with discipline and capital that shows up. Know someone flipping or building in the Valley? Forward this. We take care of the people you send.

Newsletter Edition #28