NEARLY 1 IN 3 PHOENIX LISTINGS JUST CUT PRICE.
29% of homes for sale in metro Phoenix cut their price in September, and the typical
Phoenix home still sold three days faster than it did a year ago.
Both of those are true at the same time. That is the whole Q4 story.
FROM DEVON’S DESK
Realtor.com’s September report came out this week. Nationally, price cuts hit their highest September level since 2018. Phoenix is running hotter on cuts than the country. Here is what metro Phoenix looked like last month:
29.0% of listings had a price cut, up 2 points from a year ago. Nationally it is 20.8%. Phoenix ranks fifth-highest among the 50 largest metros. Median list price: $475,000, down 4.8% from a year ago. Active listings up 7.5% year over year. Median days on market down 3 days year over year.
Read the first and last lines together. If the whole market were stalling, days on market would be climbing. It is not. Homes that are priced right are moving. The ones that sit are mostly the ones priced for last spring.
The Phoenix market is not slow. It is sorting.
I am seeing exactly this on our own desk. A handful of our borrowers’ finished projects are sitting longer than they planned. When I look at what separates them from the ones that went under contract quickly, the answer has been the same almost every time. It was not the finish and it was not the neighborhood. It was the price on day one.
THE MATH ON WAITING
Here is why it matters more for an operator than a homeowner. A homeowner who waits loses time. You lose money every month.
Say you have a finished house listed at $650,000 with a $500,000 loan on it.
A 2% price cut costs about $13,000. Once.
Three more months on the market costs about $15,000 in interest on that loan, plus taxes, insurance, utilities, and upkeep. Call it $19,000 or more, and the price usually ends up getting cut anyway.
Waiting feels free because you never write a check for it. It is the most expensive option on the table.
A price cut costs you once. Carry costs you every month.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SAME NUMBER
That 29% is a cost if you are selling. It is an opening if you are buying.
More sellers are adjusting, inventory is up, and buyers who can close without depending on a retail mortgage are one of the few options a motivated seller can count on right now.
Buying this quarter while sellers are cutting? Send me the deal and get a real number back within a day so you can make an offer the seller trusts.
ONE THING TO STEAL — THE Q4 PLAYBOOK
If you are listed now: set a 21-day checkpoint. If you do not have serious showings and at least one offer conversation by day 21, adjust. One meaningful cut early beats three small ones over three months. Buyers notice a listing that keeps chasing the market.
If you are finishing a rehab this quarter: price to the market in the week you list, not to the comp you underwrote six months ago. Pull sold comps from the last 60 days and the active listings you are competing against. Then price to be the obvious best value on that list, not the most expensive.
If you are buying now: underwrite your ARV off what is selling today, with today’s price cuts built in, and add real listing time to your timeline. Then go after the motivated sellers. This is a market where certainty of close wins discounts.
If you see the clock running on a project: call your lender early. Not at month eleven. The earlier the conversation, the more options everyone has.
If you are an agent: the most valuable thing you can do for an investor client right now is have the price conversation before the listing, not after day 45. If you are in title or escrow: you can see which files are closing on the first price and which ones fell apart and came back. That pattern is the market telling you something. If you are a vendor or sub: operators who buy in Q4 are booking winter rehabs right now. Be ready.
One question I would actually like answered: if you have a finished project listed right now, what is your plan if it does not have an offer by day 21?
Reply to this email, submit at weare42solutions.com, or call or text 602-501-1174. We lend our own money, so when we say yes, we close.
P.S. A price cut costs you once. Carry costs you every month. If you are buying while sellers are adjusting, send me the deal and I will get you a real number within a day. Send your deal at portal.weare42solutions.com/42solutions/application. Know someone sitting on a finished listing right now? Forward this to them.
Market data: Realtor.com September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro, as reported by AZ Big Media, Oct. 2, 2026.
Newsletter Edition #39
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