51% HAVE CUT THEIR PRICE. THE BUY WINDOW, MAPPED BAND BY BAND.

51% of the single-family listings in Maricopa County have cut their asking price. I think

that is the best acquisition news operators have gotten all year.

FROM DEVON'S DESK

Fresh data crossed my desk this week from a title partner we work with, Altos Research's weekly read on Maricopa County. One number jumped off the page: more than half of active sellers have already reduced their price. Only 3% have raised it.

Most people read that as a soft market. I read it as a window.

Here is why. A flip has two sides: what you pay going in and what the market gives you coming out. Right now the data says both sides favor the operator who moves. Sellers are negotiating on the way in. And the price bands where flippers actually sell, under $650K, are absorbing inventory faster than anywhere else in the county.

Buy in the discount. Sell into the demand band. Windows like this do not announce themselves twice.

MARKET PULSE

The Altos numbers this week, Maricopa County single-family:

51% of listings have cut price. 3% have raised. Median list sits at $540,000, but the median new listing is arriving at $499,900. Fresh inventory is coming on priced below the standing stock. Sellers are getting realistic.

Inventory is at 13,047 and falling. This is not a glut. It is a negotiation.

The bands tell the real story. The county splits into four price quartiles, and the two middle-market bands, medians of $369K and $470K, are absorbing in a median of 56 days, with more homes selling than being listed. The top band at $1.25M median takes 84 days. Renovated product priced under $650K is the fastest-moving real estate in the Valley.

Here is the stance: this is the strongest entry setup since the market started normalizing. Motivated sellers on the buy side, proven velocity on the exit side, and shrinking inventory underneath it all. The operators who win the next 12 months are locking up contracts in the $350K to $650K bands right now, while half the sellers at the table have already shown their hand.

Three actions:

• Hunt the two middle bands. That is where discount and demand overlap.

• Walk into every negotiation knowing 51% of sellers have already cut once. The second cut is yours to ask for.

• Underwrite your exit at 56 to 70 days on market. If your deal pencils there, move fast. Priced-right renovated product is not sitting.

  
  

THE LENDING DESK — AUGUST DATA DROP

Our monthly desk report, real numbers from our servicing system as of August 3:

• 25 loans funded in 2026, $14.9M deployed. Already past our entire 2025 ($10.8M across 23 loans) with five months still on the clock.

• 19 loans paid off this year, averaging 232 days start to exit.

• Internal ARV accuracy on this year's first-half exits: within 2.3% of actual sale prices.

• 42% of our borrowers are repeat borrowers, and climbing.

• Zero loans in default across the entire active book.

That last pairing, record volume and zero defaults, is the whole model in two numbers.

We are funding more than we ever have, and the book has never been healthier. That is what happens when good operators bring deals bought right, in the bands the data favors.

THE DEAL DESK

Recently funded:

• Central Phoenix, 85014 — $500,000 — fix-and-flip, first position, funded mid-July

In closing:

• Florence — $225,000 — tracking our standard 7 to 10 day close

Recently paid off:

• Tucson — $370,000 — completed early July. Clean payoff, principal and interest in full.

  
  

ONE THING TO STEAL

Put the 51% stat in your offer arsenal this week. When half the market has already cut price once, your below-ask offer is not lowballing. It is meeting the market where the data says it lives. Say it exactly that way in the negotiation.

My question for you this week: what price band are you hunting in right now? Reply with a number. I will tell you what we are seeing there.

P.S. Buy in the discount, sell into the demand band. When you find the deal, we commit in 24 to 48 hours and close in 7 to 10 days. Know someone hunting in the Valley? Forward them this issue.

Newsletter Edition #31