PHOENIX IS OUTSELLING THE NATION 2 TO 1

New Phoenix REALTORS data landed this week. Closed sales in Greater Phoenix rose 8.1% in June versus 3.2% nationally. First-half sales are up 5.4%. Median price held at $485K, up just 0.2%. And days on market climbed to 78 from 72.

Two weeks ago I told you the Valley had shifted toward buyers. June's numbers add the nuance that matters: pending sales have nearly leveled off after falling 8.4% through March, inventory actually declined in June, and sellers are still capturing 98.2% of asking price, a number that has barely moved in three years.

So this is not a market where buyers name their price. It is a market where buyers have recovered their patience. More homes are selling, but they are selling slower, and only when the price and the product are right. Demand is real. It is just no longer forgiving.

For operators, that means the profit is in precision. The right city, the right finish level for that city, and a price set to the 98.2% reality, not to hope.

MARKET PULSE

The Valley is not one market anymore.

Scottsdale closed sales rocketed 13.4% with the median up 2.4% to $1.265M, but 83 days on market. Mesa is quietly the steadiest board in the Valley: sales up 4.8%, days on market down 1.5% to 65. Queen Creek is sitting 89 days with the median down 0.9%. Same metro, three different games. Pull the DOM for your specific city before you write your exit timeline, not the metro average.

Phoenix proper: closed sales up 2.9%, median flat at $490K, 65 days on market, new listings down 5.2%. Flat prices with shrinking listings means your margin is made at purchase and in scope. Underwrite the exit on today's comps and today's timeline.

Capital is chasing this market. 644 private-money loans were recorded in Maricopa County in June, $654.8M, with volume up 60% year over year. Loan count only grew 8%, so the checks are getting bigger, not broader. Financing for a well-underwritten Arizona deal is as available as it has ever been. Bring a deal with real margin and the capital side will not be your bottleneck.

THE DEAL DESK

June on the desk: 5 loans funded, $2.04M deployed.

Gilbert, 85296 — $600,000, purchase and rehab, single family. 68.6% of ARV. Funded June 24.

Maricopa, 85138 — $165,000, purchase, single family. 55% of ARV. Application to funding in 10 days.

Phoenix, 85032 — $445,000, purchase and rehab, single family. Funded June 22.

And one more central Phoenix purchase and rehab is clear to close this week, eight days after the application landed.

None of these fit a rigid box. All of them fit common sense.

ONE THING TO STEAL

Before your next offer, look up three numbers for the specific city, not the metro: days on market, percent of list price captured, and how the median has moved over six months. Then add 30 days to whatever DOM you find and confirm the deal still works.

In a 78-day market, the operators who get hurt are not the ones who buy wrong. They are the ones who plan an exit for a market that no longer exists.

"Demand is real. It is just no longer forgiving."

Which Valley city are you hunting in right now, and why? Hit reply. I read every one.

Devon

weare42solutions.com · devon@weare42solutions.com · 602-501-1174

P.S. The metro average will lie to you. The city-level data will not. If this was useful, forward it to one operator writing offers this week. They can join The Draw at weare42solutions.activehosted.com/f/1

Newsletter Edition #26