YOU CAN GET THE PRICE OR THE SELECTION. NOT BOTH.

There is no best month to buy in Phoenix. Anybody telling you otherwise is selling something. There are

two different edges, they never show up at the same time, and the operators who make money know which one they are buying.

FROM DEVON'S DESK

Here are the two edges.

Price. The deep summer is the best time of year to negotiate in this market. June, July, August, the buyers are gone. Nobody is walking houses in 112 degrees. If you are standing there with a check, you have almost no competition and a lot of leverage.

Selection. The catch is that the smart sellers know all of that too. They wait. They hold their house off the market until the fall or the spring rather than list it into a dead month. So the summer gives you the best pricing power and the thinnest inventory in the year to use it on.

That is the trade. You do not get both. Ever.

Which leads to the thing I would actually tell you about summer listings: the houses that are on the market in July are there for a reason, and your job is to figure out which reason. Either the seller genuinely has to sell, a job transfer, a divorce, an estate, a failed flip, and that is your discount. Or the property has a problem the spring buyers already found. One of those is an opportunity. The other is a lesson. The only difference is how hard you looked.

Now flip to today. Inventory is coming back. Maricopa County is running about 73 days of market time at a median of $504,900, up roughly 1% year over year. Statewide the median is 66 days. You have more to look at than you did eight weeks ago, and so does everybody else. This is a selection window, not a discount window. The edge you have right now is choice, more properties to underwrite, more chances to find the one that pencils. The edge you do not have is a seller with nobody else to talk to.

So buy accordingly. In a selection window you win on volume of offers and speed of decision, not on lowballing. In a price window you win on patience and diligence. Same market, opposite behavior.

THE PART ALMOST EVERYBODY GETS BACKWARD

You will see it written everywhere that Greater Phoenix home sales peak in May, June, and July. True. And then people conclude they should list in May, June, and July.

That is exactly wrong. Those closings are spring listings finishing. A house that closes in June went under contract in April and hit the market in March. The peak you are reading about is a closing peak, and it is telling you about a listing window that happened sixty to ninety days earlier.

The listing window you actually want is late March through May. Miss it and you are not landing in the peak, you are landing behind it, putting a finished house in front of Phoenix buyers in June and July, which is the one thing on this list I would call a genuine mistake.

So the sell-side rule is the only rigid one: do not list into the true summer. Everything else is a trade-off you get to choose.

Run your own calendar. A deal you close in the next few weeks and rehab through the winter lists in February or March and lands squarely in the window. That is a clean setup and it is available right now. A deal you buy next summer at a real discount is also a good deal. It just needs a rehab schedule that does not dump you onto the market in July.

Both work. They are different trades. The mistake is not picking the wrong month. The mistake is not knowing which trade you just made.

Your carry is the same either way. On a $400,000 loan at 12%, that is $4,000 a month regardless of the season. You are paying it no matter what. The only question is what those months are buying you.

MARKET PULSE

Maricopa County median: $504,900, up roughly 1% year over year. Flat pricing means the buy is where you make your money in every season. Underwrite off comps and your actual basis, not off appreciation.

About 73 days average market time in Maricopa, 66-day median statewide. That is your exit timeline, not a mood. Add it to every pro forma before you sign and know what month it lands you in.

Sales peak May through July, but those are spring listings closing. The listing window is late March through May. Target the listing date, not the closing peak. A winter rehab from a fall purchase hits it clean.

THE DEAL DESK

Recent fundings:

• Phoenix, 85050 — $210,000, purchase and rehab, ARV $315,000, 67% of ARV, file open to funded in 4 days

• Chandler, 85224 — $521,775, purchase and rehab, file open to funded in 7 days

• Prescott Valley, 86314 — $215,000, purchase, ARV $350,000, 61% of ARV, repeat borrower

Where the book stands: 29 loans originated this fiscal year, $16.1 million. 20 payoffs. Zero in default. 85 loans and $34.1 million since inception.

We lend our own money, so when we say yes, we close. Commitments in 24 to 48 hours. Seven to ten days standard, faster when a seller is pushing. Draws in about 24 hours.

Both edges need speed, for different reasons. In a selection window, speed is how you win the property. In a price window, speed is how you win the discount. A seller who has already had one buyer fall out will take less money from someone who can actually close. The rate is what you pay for money. Certainty is what you pay for sleep.

On a $400,000 six-month flip, a two-point rate difference is about $4,000. Losing the house, or losing your listing window, costs multiples of that.

ONE THING TO STEAL

Before you write your next offer, answer two questions in writing.

Which edge am I buying, price or selection? If it is selection, your job is to move fast and be decisive on a good property. If it is price, your job is to be patient and diligent on a motivated one. Behaving like the wrong one is how people overpay in October and miss deals in July.

What month does this list? Close date, plus your honest rehab schedule. If it lands late March through May, the calendar is with you. If it lands in June or July, the deal is not dead. It needs a better basis, a shorter scope, or a plan to hold into fall.

Two minutes. It changes what you are willing to pay.

If you flip or build: right now you have selection. Use it. Underwrite more deals, decide faster, and aim your finish at the spring listing window. If you are an agent: most investors read the seasonality data backward. Show them the listing versus closing distinction and you will be the sharpest person in their contacts. If you are a vendor or sub: winter rehabs are what feed a spring listing. October through January books up with the operators who plan.

Have a deal you are looking at, in any season? Reply to this email, send it to devon@weare42solutions.com, or call 602-501-1174. We are actively funding fix-and-flip, new construction, bridge, and acquisition from $100K to $2.5M across Arizona, and we would rather look at ten of your deals than wait for the perfect one.

One question I would actually like answered: on the last deal you bought, were you buying the price or the selection?

P.S. You can buy the price or the selection. Never both. Know somebody about to list a finished house in July? Forward this before they do.

Newsletter Edition #34